2009年5月14日星期四
2009年4月26日星期日
Amazon 的奇妙零八年第四季報告
The online retailer crushed the Street's expectations by snaring customers and snapping up market share as traditional merchants foundered
Being bullish on Amazon.com proved to be a smart bet in the fourth quarter. Even as traditional retailers founder amid the worst economic malaise since the Depression, the pioneering e-tailer under CEO Jeff Bezos is using competitive pricing and an ever-expanding arsenal of services and products to produce better-than-expected results.
In the fourth quarter, Amazon (AMZN) lured customers and gobbled up market share, producing results that crushed Wall Street expectations. Revenue jumped 18% during the quarter, propelled in large part by overseas shoppers who — though shopping less — are spending more of that shrinking budget online. International sales rose 31%.
"This company is executing flawlessly," says Scott Devitt, an analyst at Stifel, Nicolaus. "Pretty much everything is going well in a sea of disaster, and the market-share gains are unbelievable, in terms of how they are growing, vs. the industry." Net income rose to 52% a share on revenue of $6.7 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of 39% a share on $6.4 billion in sales.
Kudos for the Kindle
Amazon also trumpeted sales of its electronic book reader the Kindle, though it didn't disclose unit or dollar sales. "We are pleased with the demand," Amazon Chief Financial Officer Thomas Szkutak said during a conference call with analysts and investors. "It exceeded our expectations and we're excited to see the growth that we've seen since we launched it." On Feb. 9, Amazon is due to make an announcement that some analysts speculate will be the launch of the next version of the Kindle.
Analysts were also encouraged by Amazon's projections for the early part of this year, even if the company gave itself wide latitude, since many had expected a dour outlook for 2009. Amazon expects first-quarter sales of $4.53 billion to $4.93 billion, indicating 9% to 19% growth. Analysts were expecting about $4.55 billion in revenue. Operating income for the same period is expected to be $125 million to $210 million. That leaves the midpoint at $168 million, a few million below some analysts' projections, though not enough for real concern, Devitt says.
Amazon was up front about its reliance on price cuts to attract buyers. "It was a very competitive pricing environment," Szkutak said. "One of the reasons you see the growth we provided is because of the pricing."
Discounts Not Too Deep
Yet the results suggest the discounting wasn't as deep as some analysts had thought. Concern that the company had slashed prices emerged after Amazon a month ago called the 2008 holiday season its "best ever." The operating margin, a yardstick of profitability, narrowed to 4% from 4.8% a year earlier, but was nevertheless 0.5% higher than expected, says Jeffrey Lindsay, an analyst at Bernstein Research. "It looks as if they haven't had to discount to any [greater] extent that we thought," he says.
Devitt chalked up the margin pressure to increased spending on shipping costs — for instance, by covering more products with cheap shipping and signing up more people for Amazon Prime, a program that provides free shipping for customers who pay a $79 annual fee.
Amazon follows Google (GOOG) and Netflix (NFLX) in releasing results that show some pockets of the tech sector are shrugging off the worst of the recession.
Gaining Ground on eBay
Amazon's results stand in contrast to those of competitor eBay (EBAY). While eBay is the most heavily trafficked online retailer, Amazon is gaining ground. In December, Amazon traffic jumped by 9.8% from a year earlier, while eBay's traffic dropped 2.5%, according to ComScore (SCOR).
Buoyant results aside, there's room for caution. That's why Amazon gave such a wide range in its growth estimates and didn't provide a full-year forecast. The full impact of the recession might not be felt until later in 2009.
But even if Amazon's sales take a bigger-than-expected hit, the company may nevertheless outperform the rest of the industry. Fourth-quarter e-commerce sales slipped 4%, according to ComScore. Traditional retail sales dropped 2.8% during the period that includes November and December, according to the National Retail Federation. And this year, the NRF forecasts that traditional retail sales will drop 0.5%.
更多车品觉的未来趋势博文
Being bullish on Amazon.com proved to be a smart bet in the fourth quarter. Even as traditional retailers founder amid the worst economic malaise since the Depression, the pioneering e-tailer under CEO Jeff Bezos is using competitive pricing and an ever-expanding arsenal of services and products to produce better-than-expected results.
In the fourth quarter, Amazon (AMZN) lured customers and gobbled up market share, producing results that crushed Wall Street expectations. Revenue jumped 18% during the quarter, propelled in large part by overseas shoppers who — though shopping less — are spending more of that shrinking budget online. International sales rose 31%.
"This company is executing flawlessly," says Scott Devitt, an analyst at Stifel, Nicolaus. "Pretty much everything is going well in a sea of disaster, and the market-share gains are unbelievable, in terms of how they are growing, vs. the industry." Net income rose to 52% a share on revenue of $6.7 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of 39% a share on $6.4 billion in sales.
Kudos for the Kindle
Amazon also trumpeted sales of its electronic book reader the Kindle, though it didn't disclose unit or dollar sales. "We are pleased with the demand," Amazon Chief Financial Officer Thomas Szkutak said during a conference call with analysts and investors. "It exceeded our expectations and we're excited to see the growth that we've seen since we launched it." On Feb. 9, Amazon is due to make an announcement that some analysts speculate will be the launch of the next version of the Kindle.
Analysts were also encouraged by Amazon's projections for the early part of this year, even if the company gave itself wide latitude, since many had expected a dour outlook for 2009. Amazon expects first-quarter sales of $4.53 billion to $4.93 billion, indicating 9% to 19% growth. Analysts were expecting about $4.55 billion in revenue. Operating income for the same period is expected to be $125 million to $210 million. That leaves the midpoint at $168 million, a few million below some analysts' projections, though not enough for real concern, Devitt says.
Amazon was up front about its reliance on price cuts to attract buyers. "It was a very competitive pricing environment," Szkutak said. "One of the reasons you see the growth we provided is because of the pricing."
Discounts Not Too Deep
Yet the results suggest the discounting wasn't as deep as some analysts had thought. Concern that the company had slashed prices emerged after Amazon a month ago called the 2008 holiday season its "best ever." The operating margin, a yardstick of profitability, narrowed to 4% from 4.8% a year earlier, but was nevertheless 0.5% higher than expected, says Jeffrey Lindsay, an analyst at Bernstein Research. "It looks as if they haven't had to discount to any [greater] extent that we thought," he says.
Devitt chalked up the margin pressure to increased spending on shipping costs — for instance, by covering more products with cheap shipping and signing up more people for Amazon Prime, a program that provides free shipping for customers who pay a $79 annual fee.
Amazon follows Google (GOOG) and Netflix (NFLX) in releasing results that show some pockets of the tech sector are shrugging off the worst of the recession.
Gaining Ground on eBay
Amazon's results stand in contrast to those of competitor eBay (EBAY). While eBay is the most heavily trafficked online retailer, Amazon is gaining ground. In December, Amazon traffic jumped by 9.8% from a year earlier, while eBay's traffic dropped 2.5%, according to ComScore (SCOR).
Buoyant results aside, there's room for caution. That's why Amazon gave such a wide range in its growth estimates and didn't provide a full-year forecast. The full impact of the recession might not be felt until later in 2009.
But even if Amazon's sales take a bigger-than-expected hit, the company may nevertheless outperform the rest of the industry. Fourth-quarter e-commerce sales slipped 4%, according to ComScore. Traditional retail sales dropped 2.8% during the period that includes November and December, according to the National Retail Federation. And this year, the NRF forecasts that traditional retail sales will drop 0.5%.
更多车品觉的未来趋势博文
eBay Vs Amazon 2008年第四季報告
It's a tale of two online sellers-and two fourth-quarter earnings reports. When Amazon reported earnings at the end of last month, it showed why it's about the only recession bright spot in retail, as its investments in the buying experience, customer service and smart fourth-quarter promotions have paid off. The week prior, eBay told a different story, even though a recession should arguably be its time to shine. It's lost affiliates and failed to build out a unified experience and direct e-commerce platform. Now, fear some analysts, it may be too late.
EBAY
Q4 REVENUE ↓ -7% to $2 billion
INCOME ↓ -31% to $367 million
THE OUTLOOK First-quarter revenue will be down between 6% and 18%
AUDIENCE, DEC. 2008 EBay's Dec. Audience: 77.9 million, down 3% year over year
WHAT THE STREET IS SAYING stock: $28.81 on Feb. 1, 2008; $12.02 on Jan. 30, 2009
BRAND ADVOCACY INDEX CHANGE[1] 6 (from 45 to 39) *From December 2007-December 2008
MODUS OPERANDI EBay has been slow to change itself into a traditional, fixed-price e-commerce giant and struggled to not alienate its third-party sellers, instead focusing on operating margin. "Perhaps the only longer-term fix to the business is for the company to actually take on balancesheet risk via building out distribution centers and purchasing inventories for direct e-commerce activity," says Deutsche Bank's Jeetil Patel.
MARKETING PHILOSOPHY It's used traditional advertising and media to push the message that it offers everything, including hard-to-find products, for cheap. But when it comes to creating a unified shopping experience, it flounders.
TOP BRAND TAGS (The words consumers associate with each company on BrandTags.net): bid, buy, cheap, crap, fun, junk, money scam, shopping
AD OUTLAY $32 million in measured media for the first nine months of 2008, according to TNS Media Intelligence; it had 281 million paid-search exposures in December, according to ComScore. 1. source: Motivequest
AMAZON
Q4 REVENUE ↑ +18% to $6.7 billion
INCOME ↑ +9% to $225 million
THE OUTLOOK First-quarter revenue will be up between 9% and 19%
AUDIENCE, DEC. 2008 Amazon's December audience: 71.4 million, up 10% year over year
WHAT THE STREET IS SAYING AMZN stock: $74.63 on Feb. 1, 2008; $58.32 on Jan 30, 2009
BRAND ADVOCACY INDEX CHANGE[1] +7 (from 38 to 45) *From December 2007- December 2008
MODUS OPERANDI Amazon has withstood criticism that some initiatives are too expensive-and it's paid off. Its Kindle e-reader was the retailer's best-selling electronics item for 2008, and it's still sold out. Amid speculation the company will launch version 2.0 today, CitiGroup analyst Mark Mahaney predicts Kindle will generate $750 million for Amazon in 2010, or nearly 3% of the retailer's revenue.
MARKETING PHILOSOPHY It largely eschews traditional advertising, instead spending on services such as free shipping. The site is consistent and it has developed loyalty programs such as Amazon Prime.
TOP BRAND TAGS Awesome, book, buy, cheap, convenient, everything, shopping, smile
AD OUTLAY $9 million on measured media for the first nine months of 2008, according to TNS; it had 801 million paid-search exposures in December, according to ComScore.
~~~~~~~~
By Abbey Klaassen, aklaassen@adage.com and Natalie Zmuda, nzmuda@adage.com
更多车品觉的未来趋势博文
EBAY
Q4 REVENUE ↓ -7% to $2 billion
INCOME ↓ -31% to $367 million
THE OUTLOOK First-quarter revenue will be down between 6% and 18%
AUDIENCE, DEC. 2008 EBay's Dec. Audience: 77.9 million, down 3% year over year
WHAT THE STREET IS SAYING stock: $28.81 on Feb. 1, 2008; $12.02 on Jan. 30, 2009
BRAND ADVOCACY INDEX CHANGE[1] 6 (from 45 to 39) *From December 2007-December 2008
MODUS OPERANDI EBay has been slow to change itself into a traditional, fixed-price e-commerce giant and struggled to not alienate its third-party sellers, instead focusing on operating margin. "Perhaps the only longer-term fix to the business is for the company to actually take on balancesheet risk via building out distribution centers and purchasing inventories for direct e-commerce activity," says Deutsche Bank's Jeetil Patel.
MARKETING PHILOSOPHY It's used traditional advertising and media to push the message that it offers everything, including hard-to-find products, for cheap. But when it comes to creating a unified shopping experience, it flounders.
TOP BRAND TAGS (The words consumers associate with each company on BrandTags.net): bid, buy, cheap, crap, fun, junk, money scam, shopping
AD OUTLAY $32 million in measured media for the first nine months of 2008, according to TNS Media Intelligence; it had 281 million paid-search exposures in December, according to ComScore. 1. source: Motivequest
AMAZON
Q4 REVENUE ↑ +18% to $6.7 billion
INCOME ↑ +9% to $225 million
THE OUTLOOK First-quarter revenue will be up between 9% and 19%
AUDIENCE, DEC. 2008 Amazon's December audience: 71.4 million, up 10% year over year
WHAT THE STREET IS SAYING AMZN stock: $74.63 on Feb. 1, 2008; $58.32 on Jan 30, 2009
BRAND ADVOCACY INDEX CHANGE[1] +7 (from 38 to 45) *From December 2007- December 2008
MODUS OPERANDI Amazon has withstood criticism that some initiatives are too expensive-and it's paid off. Its Kindle e-reader was the retailer's best-selling electronics item for 2008, and it's still sold out. Amid speculation the company will launch version 2.0 today, CitiGroup analyst Mark Mahaney predicts Kindle will generate $750 million for Amazon in 2010, or nearly 3% of the retailer's revenue.
MARKETING PHILOSOPHY It largely eschews traditional advertising, instead spending on services such as free shipping. The site is consistent and it has developed loyalty programs such as Amazon Prime.
TOP BRAND TAGS Awesome, book, buy, cheap, convenient, everything, shopping, smile
AD OUTLAY $9 million on measured media for the first nine months of 2008, according to TNS; it had 801 million paid-search exposures in December, according to ComScore.
~~~~~~~~
By Abbey Klaassen, aklaassen@adage.com and Natalie Zmuda, nzmuda@adage.com
更多车品觉的未来趋势博文
2009年4月25日星期六
搜索广告受SNS影响而出现轻微下落
未来趋势的资料分析:
在英国零售业购实PPC的广告受SNS影响而出现轻微下落。
Original Article
Retailers advised to harness social networks as paid search takes a hit
The number of visits to UK retail web sites from paid search advertising fell last year, while traffic from social networks increased significantly, according to figures from online market research firm Hitwise released today.
The stats show a drop in the amount of traffic from paid search listings on search engines such as Google, Yahoo and Ask. In March 2008, 10.1 per cent of all UK internet visits to online retailers came from a paid search listing, but this figure dropped to 8.9 per cent by last month.
But the value of click-throughs from social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter appears to have grown, with the proportion of online retailers' traffic coming from these sites rising from 5.2 per cent in March 2008 to 7.1 per cent in March 2009.
The retail categories that received most traffic from social networks during March 2009 were Auctions, Fashion and Department Stores, accounting for half of all visits to online retailers.
"Social networks are a relatively small but fast growing source of traffic for online retailers," said Hitwise director of research, Robin Goad.
"At present, only a minority of retailers pick up a significant amount of traffic from social networks, but many of those that do have seen a positive impact on traffic."
The new Hitwise research also found that UK consumers in general are spending less time shopping online and more time visiting social networking sites and browsing online media.
During March 2009, 8.6 per cent of all UK internet visits were to online retail sites and 9.8 per cent to social networking web sites. But in March 2008, the figures were reversed, with online retailers accounting for 9.7 per cent of all internet visits, and social networks 8.2 per cent, according to Hitwise
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